- The NZD/USD has moved back above the 200-hour MA at press time.
- Consumer spending in New Zealand, as represented by credit card spending data, dropped in October. So far, however, the dismal reading has not had any impact on the NZD.
- Focus on the US treasury yields.
The NZD/USD pair is eyeing a convincing move back above the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA) of 0.6791 even though the data released in New Zealand showed a drop in consumer spending.
New Zealand credit card spending fell 0.1 percent month-on-month in October, following a 0.8 percent rise in September, the official data released a few minutes before press time showed.
Indeed, the decline in spending is bad news. The NZD, however, is showing resilience, possibly due to oversold conditions in the hourly chart and risk-on in the equities. At press time, the S&P 500 futures are reporting a 0.27 percent gain.
Looking forward, the focus will be on the sentiment in the equity market and the action in Treasury yields. The US dollar sell-off will likely gather pace if the 10-year treasury yield sees a double top breakdown.
Last Price: 0.6791
Daily change: -4.0 pips
Daily change: -0.0589%
Daily Open: 0.6795
Daily SMA20: 0.6684
Daily SMA50: 0.6613
Daily SMA100: 0.6659
Daily SMA200: 0.6888
Daily High: 0.6872
Daily Low: 0.6788
Weekly High: 0.6884
Weekly Low: 0.6706
Monthly High: 0.663
Monthly Low: 0.6424
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.682
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.684
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.6765
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6735
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6682
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6848
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6902
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6932
- The USD/CAD jumped to 1.3117 – the highest since June 28.
- The value of CAD put options hits one-month high, indicating rising demand for the bearish bets.
The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3305, having clocked a five-month high of 1.3317 in the overnight trade. Notably, the currency pair is up 4 percent compared to the low of 1.2782 seen on Oct. 1.
The rally is likely associated with the 31 percent slide in WTI oil prices witnessed in the last 7 weeks. Further, Canada’s heavy-oil benchmark – Western Canadian Select – fell to a record low of $13.46 last week, adding to the bearish pressure around the CAD.
More importantly, the sell-off in the Canadian dollar may not be over just yet, according to options market data.
The USD/CAD one-month 25 delta risk reversals (CAD1MRR) are currently trading in favor of CAD puts at 0.125 – the highest level since Oct. 22. Notably, the risk reversals have gone up from 0.05 to 0.125 in the last two days, which indicates the growing demand for the CAD puts (bearish bets).
Last Price: 1.3307
Daily change: 0.0 pips
Daily change: 0.00%
Daily Open: 1.3307
Daily SMA20: 1.3154
Daily SMA50: 1.305
Daily SMA100: 1.3069
Daily SMA200: 1.2973
Daily High: 1.332
Daily Low: 1.3156
Weekly High: 1.3264
Weekly Low: 1.3127
Monthly High: 1.3172
Monthly Low: 1.2783
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3257
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3218
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3202
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3097
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3038
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3366
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3425
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.353
- USD/JPY bulls have taken back the baton and the price is now climbing back from the lows reached due to EUR/JPY’s European dive (as a result of weakness in European banks).
- USD/JPY is currently trading at 112.61, rising from a low of 112.30 and a touch off the high at 112.66.
The euro fell from a two-week high on Tuesday in the crossfire of a selloff in European stock markets and nervousness about Italian banks. That dragged on EUR.JPY and subsequently took USD/JPYalong for the ride in a risk-off environment.
At the same time, we need to monitor the long position of the dollar going into the Thanksgiving holidays which may mean a further squaring of longs that could subsequently weigh on USD/JPY. The DXY has already started to test below the 96.247 Fibonacci level, a 50 percent retrace of the 94.789 to 97.704 (October to November) rise which is definitely bearish.
However, Sino-US trade relations are likely to support the dollar for the foreseeable future all the while that there are no signs of a solution to Beijing’s and Washingtons dispute – The APEC meetings over the weekend brought a strong indication that it is too early to assume that the end of their trade dispute, as analysts at Rabobank argued: “The downside risks to growth from trade wars are likely to keep risky assets under pressure and this is likely to ensure some support for the USD.”
However, such political unease and sentiment will also continue to play into the yen’s hands as market participants also focus on Brexit developments as well as ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Eyes on yields and the Fed
“Lower U.S. Treasury yields are narrowing interest rate differentials in a JPY-supportive manner, however, measures of sentiment are only signaling an incremental rise in the premium for protection against JPY strength,” analysts at Scotiabank pointed out. However, they also noted that the JPY remains vulnerable from a positioning perspective, “given the sizeable speculative bearish short – the largest among the reporting currencies according to data from the CFTC.”
Meanwhile, the Fed fund futures yields have continued to price the chance of another rate hike on 19 December around 65%, but pricing for 2019 and 2020 has fallen. This also plays into the hands of the bears.
USD/JPY has reached the 61.8% target at 112.45 and on continued downside pressure, 111.30 guards the 110.55 2018 peak where a cluster of buy stops are located. On the upside, 112.80/50% Fibo and then the 38.2% Fibo just above R2 are key ahead of 113.30 and 114.20.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
- EUR/USD is trading below the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart.
- The next main target to the downside for the coming days remains at the 1.1350 level.
EUR/USD 30-minute chart
- EUR/USD found some short-term support at 1.1400 figure above the 200 SMA on the 30-minute chart.
- Technical indicators such as RSI and MACD have been pretty much oversold while MACD is slowly picking up steam.
- Traders should expect a test of 1.1440 before the resumption of the bear trend.
Additional key levels at a glance:
Last Price: 1.141
Daily change: -42 pips
Daily change: -0.367%
Daily Open: 1.1452
Daily SMA20: 1.1374
Daily SMA50: 1.1509
Daily SMA100: 1.1561
Daily SMA200: 1.1811
Daily High: 1.1466
Daily Low: 1.1394
Weekly High: 1.142
Weekly Low: 1.1216
Monthly High: 1.1625
Monthly Low: 1.1302
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1438
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1421
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1409
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1365
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1336
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1481
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1509
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1553
- US Dollar gains momentum on the back of stock market sell-off.
- Cable remains under pressure but holds above 1.2800.
The GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.2813, hitting a fresh daily low amid a stronger US dollar. The pair trades near the lows, under bearish pressure but still above 1.2800.
A sell-off in Wall Street boosted the demand for the US dollar and pushed cable modestly lower. The Dow Jones is down almost 2% and crude oil falls more than 4%. The risk aversion tone increased over the last hours and offset Brexit headlines. The DXY rose to 96.50, erasing Monday’s losses.
The BoE and the UK government are confident about reaching a deal, but the fact is that no deal has been agreed yet and negotiations still look complex, creates uncertainty about the outcome as March 2019 approaches. Volatility in pound’s crosses appears to be granted during the next weeks, particularity affected by Brexit headlines.
GBP/USD Levels to watch
To the downside, the immediate support is seen at 1.2800, followed by 1.2790 (Nov 19 low), 1.2750 and 1.2720/25 (Nov 15 low). On the flip side, resistance might be located at 1.2840 (Asian session low), followed by the strong 1.2880/85 area (Nov 16, 19 and 20 high) and 1.2945.
- USD/CAD has rallied to the best levels since July as the dollar picks up the trade war saga bid while oil drops from the skies, plunging below the 61.8% fibo retracement support level and tests the Feb 2017 highs.
- USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3255 and has scored a high of 1.3272 from a low of 1.3155.
USD/CAD has been resuming the 2018 uptrend in recent weeks, reversing the summer lull from 2018 1.3387 highs that took the pair down to test 1.2782 in September. However, the pick up in Fed sentiment in October, despite a more hawkish outcome of the BoC of late, kicked off a correction which has now extended into a reversal due to a rout in the price of oil.
There has been an oversupply situation in the oil market which is now set to grow as consumer demand falls further due to diminishing global growth forecasts. The oil markets have defined as at least a 20% pullback from their recent four-year high in early October. The Canadian economy relies heavily on income and the BoC will be monitoring the effects on inflation which is being picked up by traders and hence the bid in USD/CAD – (Fed/BoC diversion bid).
Sino-US trade spat. should favour the dollar
One of the major concerns on investor’s minds is the Sino-US trade spat. Analysts at Rabobank noted that the APEC meetings over the weekend brought a strong indication that it is too early to assume that the end of their trade dispute.
“The downside risks to growth from trade wars are likely to keep risky assets under pressure and this is likely to ensure some support for the USD.”
The pair has reached R3 up at the highs having broken through the key 61.8% fibo which held on the initial tests, as to be expected. Analysts at Scotiabank argued that the short-term technicals are neutral—bullish: “The ascending channel from early October has a floor just below 1.3150 and a ceiling in the mid-1.33s.” A break of that ceiling exposes the target of 1.3400 and 76.4% fibo of the summer’s downtrend to recent lows. RSI has room to go still.
Crude oil 4-hour chart
- Crude oil is trading in a steep bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average.
- Crude oil took yet another hit as bears are pushing the commodity to a new 2018 low.
- Technical indicators are in bearish territories. It remains to be seen how far the bears can really push the market in the short term as oil is quite overstretched to the downside. 56.00 is the target for bulls.
Additional key levels at a glance:
Last Price: 54.05
Daily change: -3.3e+2 pips
Daily change: -5.77%
Daily Open: 57.36
Daily SMA20: 61.06
Daily SMA50: 67.43
Daily SMA100: 67.91
Daily SMA200: 68.19
Daily High: 57.42
Daily Low: 57.3
Weekly High: 60.93
Weekly Low: 55.21
Monthly High: 76.25
Monthly Low: 64.86
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 57.37
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 57.35
Daily Pivot Point S1: 57.3
Daily Pivot Point S2: 57.24
Daily Pivot Point S3: 57.18
Daily Pivot Point R1: 57.42
Daily Pivot Point R2: 57.48
Daily Pivot Point R3: 57.54
- GDT price index falls for the 12th straight time.
- Commodity sell-off intensifies to weigh on the kiwi.
- US Dollar Index advances to 96.60 area.
The NZD/USD pair came under a renewed selling pressure in the second half of the day and slumped to a fresh 3-day low 0.6803. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.6812, losing 0.4% on a daily basis.
Following the bi-weekly GDT auction in New Zealand, GDT price index fell 3.5% to record its 12th straight decline and weighed on the kiwi. Furthermore, the commodity sell-off led by a more than 5% drop in crude oil prices put some extra weight on commodity-sensitive NZD’s shoulders.
On the other hand, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, gained traction in the NA session and rose to a daily high above 96.60 and erased all of its losses from Monday to drag the pair lower. At the moment, the DXY is up 0.45% on a daily basis at 96.60. The only data from the U.S. today showed that housing starts increased 1.5% in October following September’s 5.5% fall.
Commenting on the data, “The increase in US housing starts suggests that construction companies are finding good demand and that a strong labor market and rising wages are partially compensating for ever higher selling prices and mortgage costs,” FXStreet senior analyst Joseph Trevisani said.
Technical levels to consider
The initial support for the pair aligns at 0.6800 (psychological level/200-DMA) ahead of 0.6740 (Nov. 8 low) and 0.6700 (Nov. 12 low). On the upside, resistances could be seen at 0.6870 (daily high), 0.6915 (Jun. 25 high) and 0.7000 (psychological level).