USD/CHF spikes to session tops, around mid-0.9900s

• A sudden pickup in the USD demand helps regain positive traction.
• Cautious mood/weaker US bond yields might cap additional gains.

The USD/CHF pair finally broke out of its Asian session consolidation phase and spiked to fresh session tops, surpassing the overnight swing high.

With investors looking past Wednesday’s ultra-dovish FOMC statement, the US Dollar managed to stage a goodish bounce from the lowest level since early February on Thursday.

The USD uptick extended on the last trading day of the week, rather picked up the pace and was seen as one of the key factors behind the pair’s latest leg of a sudden upsurge in the last hour or so.

The intraday positive move seemed rather unaffected by the prevalent cautious mood, reinforced by weaker US Treasury bond yields and which tends to underpin the Swiss Franc’s safe-haven demand.

The recovery move, however, lacked any obvious catalyst and hence, remains to be seen if the recovery is backed by any genuine buying or is solely led by some near-term short-covering.

There isn’t any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US and hence, the broader market risk-sentiment/USD price dynamics might continue to influence the pair’s momentum.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Outlook stays bearish below the 5-month resistance line at 1.1412

  • EUR/USD remains on the defensive today, putting the 1.1300 support under further pressure on the back of miserable prints from PMIs in core Euroland.
  • The probable test of YTD lows in the 1.1180/75 band remains well on the cards as long as the 5-month resistance line, today at 1.1412, caps the upside.
  • On the upside, spot needs to clear the area of recent tops beyond 1.1400 the figure to allow for a potential move to the 1.1500 neighbourhood and beyond.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/GBP tumbles to lows, closer to 0.8600 mark on dismal German/EZ manufacturing PMIs

• German manufacturing PMI falls to the weakest level in six years and prompts some aggressive selling.
• Composite Euro-zone manufacturing PMI drops to 71-month lows and added to the bearish pressure.
• British Pound remains supported by the overnight news of an unconditional Brexit delay until April 12.

The EUR/GBP cross finally broke down of its late-Asian session consolidation phase and tumbled to fresh session lows in the last hour, albeit managed to find some support ahead of the 0.8600 handle.

The cross extended overnight retracement from one-month tops, levels beyond the 0.8700 handle, and the corrective slide accelerated further in wake of some aggressive selling around the shared currency following today’s disappointing release of flash Euro-zone manufacturing PMI prints.

Data released on Friday showed that that German manufacturing activity slipped deeper into contraction territory and grew at the weakest pace in six years in March. Meanwhile, the composite Euro-zone manufacturing PMI plunged to a 71-month low level of 47.6 and added to the bearish pressure.

Adding to this, the British Pound remained supported by the fact that the EU leaders, at the European Council meeting on Thursday, agreed to offer an unconditional Brexit delay until April 12. However, the British Parliament has to agree to the PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal for an extension till May 22.

However, given that May might still struggle to gain the required support to get her withdrawal agreement through the UK Parliament kept a lid on any runaway rally for the British Pound and turned out to be only factors lending some support to the cross, at least for the time being.

Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent corrective bounce might have already run out of steam and the cross is set to resume with its prior/well-established near-term bearish trajectory.

GBP/USD drops sharply to 1.3080 as no-deal Brexit fears return

Increased odds of no-deal Brexit, USD rebound knocks-off GBP/USD.
All eyes remain on Brexit headlines, US macro data and EU Summit.
The GBP/USD pair stalled its steady recovery mode near 1.3160 and ran into heavy offers after the greenback staged a solid rebound across the board, mainly driven by an 80-pips sell-off in the EUR/USD pair following awful Eurozone and German manufacturing March PMI reports.

Goldman Sachs raises chances of no-deal Brexit, says all options in play

The latest slide in the spot can be also attributed to the return of the GBP bears, as markets are now pricing in the chances of a no-deal Brexit again, as they believe the 2-weeks Brexit deadline extension granted by the European Union (EU) to the UK PM May is unlikely to resolve any problem for May’s government.

Meanwhile, no new surprises offered by the Bank of England (BOE) a day before also continues to weigh down on the investors’ minds, as attention gradually shifting towards a fresh batch of macro releases from the US docket due later today. Markets look forward to the manufacturing and services PMI reports from Markit and existing homes sales data for fresh trading incentives while the Brexit-related anxiety will continue to play out ahead of the EU Summit next week.

GBP/USD: Recovery underway towards 1.3190/1.3260, Brexit developments in spotlight

  • Brexit deadline extension has its own challenges for the UK PM Theresa May.
  • The quote needs to cross 1.3190 and 1.3260 resistances in order to justify its bounce off 1.3000 round-figure.

The British Pound (GBP) is taking the bids near 1.3140 versus the US Dollar (USD) ahead of London open on Friday. The GBP/USD pair has been on a recovery mode since Thursday-end as EU leaders finally agreed over the Brexit deadline extension with the two-factor system giving unconditional stretch till April 12. Though, uncertainty over the Brexit still remains on cards as the UK PM Theresa May has to jostle with the British parliament soon. Also directing the immediate trade sentiment will be second-tier data from the US.

In spite of getting unconditional deadline extension till April 12, PM May has to convince lawmakers at home to support her plan in the parliament’s voting sometimes next week in order to grab the May 22 data for the Britain to leave the EU. Having been defeated twice at home, it would become tough for PM May to persuade British politicians for her third Brexit plan considering the fact that it won’t be too different from the previous one.

Other than Brexit uncertainty, US data could also play their role in directing near-term trade sentiment. Among them, the current month Markit composite purchasing manager index (PMI) and February month existing home sales could gain market attention.

The US Markit PMI composite could soften to 55.2 from 55.5 but likely increase in existing home sales to 5.10M over 4.94M earlier might favor the greenback.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

While a descending trend-line joining highs since March 19 offers immediate resistance around 1.3190, a week-long resistance-line at 1.3260 could limit the pair’s further advances.

On the downside, eleven-week old ascending trend-line and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.3060/65, near to recent low at 1.3000 round-figure, can please sellers ahead of questioning their strength by 200-day SMA figure of 1.2980.

USD/JPY: Risk aversion returns, 110.40/30 regains market attention

  • Brexit news couldn’t please bulls for long as North Korea, China triggered risk off.
  • The US data and the UK PM’s ability to progress over Brexit remains in highlight.

USD/JPY failed to extend yesterday’s pullback beyond 111.00 as the quote dropped to the lows near 110.60 around early Asian session on Friday. Return of Japanese traders after a holiday met renewed risk aversion wave. Investors may now focus on risk events like Brexit and political pessimism surrounding the US, North Korea and China, coupled with the US data, in order to determine near-term trade moves.

Following that, news that China announced anti-dumping duties over certain products from the EU, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia further leveled out the risk-off and pleased USD/JPY sellers.

It should also be noted that JPY traders gave little importance to Japan’s national core consumer price index (CPI) measures published earlier as Finance Minister Taro Aso said the economy is on a moderate recovery mode.

Other than EU and US leaders’ response to the North Korean and Chin’s recent actions, Brexit worries could continue directing immediate risk sentiment as the UK PM Theresa May is still to get British parliament approval for her third proposal in order to avail deadline extension till May 22.

On the data side, the US Markit PMIs and existing home sales figures should be observed closely for predicting immediate moves. While expected weakness in the composite PMI may favor USD/JPY sellers, likely improvement in housing market stat could challenge the present mood.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

50-day simple moving average (SMA) and an upward sloping trendline stretched since January 04 highlights the importance of 110.40/30 area for USD/JPY traders. A break of which can trigger the pair’s drop to 110.00 and 109.80.

Alternatively, 100-day SMA level of 111.30 and 200-day SMA level near 111.50 can confine the pair’s immediate upside, clearing which 112.00 can lure bulls.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls keep an eye over 0.6920 resistanceline

  • NZD/USD is on bids around 0.6890 during early Friday.
  • The quote took a U-turn from nine-month-old descending trend-line on Thursday but is still above previous resistance turned support figure of 0.6860, making it capable of aiming a break over 0.6890 for one more time.
  • In doing so, 0.6940 and 0.6970 can please buyers ahead of challenging them with 0.7000 round-figure.
  • If at all Kiwi optimists surpass 0.7000 mark, 0.7060 can be their next target.
  • Meanwhile, a downside break of 0.6860 might not hesitate visiting 0.6825 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June – October decline, at 0.6815, but 100-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6800 could limit further south-run.
  • During the pair’s extended downturn past-0.6800, 0.6790 and 0.6770 can entertain sellers ahead of highlighting the 0.6740-35 support confluence that comprises 200-day SMA, five-month-old ascending trend-line and 50% Fibonacci retracement.
  • Assuming the pair’s slid under 0.6735, bears can recall 0.6705 and 0.6650 on the chart.

NZD/USD daily chart

ADDITIONAL IMPORTANT LEVELS

OVERVIEW
Today last price 0.6886
Today Daily Change 9 pips
Today Daily Change % 0.13
Today daily open 0.6877
TRENDS
Daily SMA20 0.6835
Daily SMA50 0.6823
Daily SMA100 0.6805
Daily SMA200 0.6738
LEVELS
Previous Daily High 0.6939
Previous Daily Low 0.6857
Previous Weekly High 0.6874
Previous Weekly Low 0.679
Previous Monthly High 0.6943
Previous Monthly Low 0.6719
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6888
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6908
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6843
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6809
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6761
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6925
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6973
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.7007

AUD/USD flirts with lows near 0.7100 amid fresh trade worries, risk-off

  • Risk-off amid fresh trade worries, downbeat Aussie data weigh negatively
  • Focus on US economic release, risk sentiment for the next moves.

AUD/USD is on a steady decline so far this Asian session on Friday, now struggling around the 0.71 handle, having hit fresh session lows at 0.7095 some minutes ago.

The overnight bounce in the Aussie faded at 0.7120 and from the Aussie witnessed a fresh leg lower, despite the renewed US dollar selling across the board, as the Australian flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.0 vs. 52.9 previous.

Attention now turns towards the US macro news due later on Friday, including Markit manufacturing and services PMI reports, existing home sales and wholesale inventories, for fresh trading impetus. In the meantime, the USD dynamics and risk trends will continue to have a major bearing on the spot, as markets keep an eye on fresh trade-related developments.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

AUD/USD

OVERVIEW
Today last price 0.7105
Today Daily Change -0.0005
Today Daily Change % -0.07
Today daily open 0.711
TRENDS
Daily SMA20 0.7093
Daily SMA50 0.7132
Daily SMA100 0.716
Daily SMA200 0.7217
LEVELS
Previous Daily High 0.7168
Previous Daily Low 0.7089
Previous Weekly High 0.7099
Previous Weekly Low 0.7026
Previous Monthly High 0.7285
Previous Monthly Low 0.7053
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.7119
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.7138
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.7077
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.7043
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6998
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.7156
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.7202
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.7236

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Bounce from 38.2% Fibonacci retracement struggle with 200-day SMA

USD/CHF daily chart

  • The USD/CHF pair trades near 0.9930 at the early Asian session on Friday.
  • The quote recently bounced off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its September – November 2018 upside but is struggling around 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.9920.
  • Should the pair successfully cross 0.9920, 0.9960 can act as immediate resistance ahead of highlighting 0.9990 confluence comprising 50-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci.
  • During the pair’s additional rise above 0.9990, 1.000 round-figure and support-turned-resistance line around 1.0020 can challenge buyers targeting 1.0055.
  • On the downside break of 0.9900 Fibonacci figure, 0.9855, 0.9800 and 0.9780 could please sellers before challenging them with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9765.
  • Additionally, 0.9700 and 0.9640 might become Bears’ favorites after 0.9765.

 

USD/CHF 4-Hour chart

  • Short-term descending trend-line can offer intermediate resistance around 0.9980 between 0.9960 and 0.9990.
  • 0.9820 may act as a buffer between 0.9855 and 0.9800.

 

USD/CHF hourly chart

  • Recent highs around 0.9945 could provide the closest resistance to the pair.
  • Also, 61.8% Fibonacci expansion of moves from March 20, at 0.9875, might become adjacent support past-0.9900.

GBP futures: rising odds for further retracements

Open interest in GBP futures markets shrunk markedly on Wednesday by nearly 51K contracts, as per advanced figures from CME Group. On the other hand, volume reversed five consecutive daily drops and rose by almost 51.7K contracts.

GBP/USD rebounds appear shallow

Cable’s negative performance on Wednesday was on the back of a significant decline in open interest and a moderate build in volume, leaving the scenario neutral/bearish for the time being.